Research institutions predict that the price pressure on mature processes will still be high by 2025, coupled with an estimated annual increase of 6% in production capacity. The main manufacturers of mature processes, including UMC, VIS, and PSMC, are actively preparing for the war. TSMC's mature processes are also upgrading to increase the proportion of special processes and differentiate itself from competitors.
According to the latest survey conducted by TrendForce on October 24th, the visibility of mature semiconductor process orders remains at around one quarter, and the outlook for 2025 is still variable. It is estimated that the utilization rate of mature process capacity in the world's top 10 wafer foundries will be over 75% next year.
The organization expects that the production capacity of the top ten mature process outsourcing factories worldwide will increase by 6% by 2025, but the price trend will be suppressed.
The organization stated that there is currently a polarization in demand between advanced and mature processes, with 5nm, 4nm, and 3nm being driven by AI servers, high-efficiency computing chips for computers, and new processors for smartphones, resulting in full capacity utilization by the end of 2024. However, mature processes above 28nm have only moderately recovered, and the average capacity utilization rate in the second half of this year has increased by 5-10 percentage points compared to the first half.
Due to the fact that most end products and applications still require mature processes to produce peripheral ICs, coupled with geopolitical factors leading to supply chain diversion, ensuring regional production capacity has become an important issue, prompting global mature process expansion. The main expansion plans of the wafer foundry in 2025 include TSMC Kumamoto, Chinese Mainland, etc.
TrendForce analysis shows that due to the fact that the average annual capacity utilization rate of mature processes is less than 80%, coupled with the urgent need for new production capacity to fill orders, mature process prices will be under pressure and difficult to increase.
VIS is currently processing cash capital increase and plans to hold an online briefing on November 5th to release the latest operational outlook. VIS is promoting the construction of its first 12 inch factory and continues to expand its 8-inch factory. The total investment for the 12 inch factory is about 7.8 billion US dollars, and it is expected to start mass production in 2027. After the successful mass production of the first wafer factory, VIS and NXP Semiconductors will consider building a second wafer factory.
In terms of UMC, the conversion benefits of the US China trade war will continue to ferment, with weak short-term performance in various applications such as automotive and industrial semiconductors, but still growing in the medium to long term. As for the outlook for communication and consumer goods, it will be better than the first half of the year. Currently, UMC's fourth quarter revenue will be similar to the third quarter.
UMC itself holds a cautiously optimistic attitude towards 2024, estimating that semiconductor production will increase by 4% to 6% annually, wafer foundry production will increase by 11% to 13% annually, and mature processes will remain stable.
In terms of PSMC, looking ahead to the future, General Manager Zhu Xianguo once said that the overall investment of customers is relatively conservative, especially in terms of driving IC related pressure, and the overall investment in the fourth quarter is relatively cautious.
However, Zhu Xianguo is optimistic that PSMC is an enterprise that can simultaneously produce storage and logic wafers, and has also invested in the research and development of 2.5D/3D products, which can integrate logic chips and memory stacks to meet the AI needs of edge devices.
